California
California’s 2026 race for governor is emerging as one of the most unpredictable contests in recent state history, with early polling showing a tightly packed field and raising concerns among Democrats that two Republicans could advance to the general election.
Under California’s “top-two” primary system, all candidates appear on the same ballot, and only the two highest vote-getters advance to November, regardless of party. That system, combined with a large Democratic field and a more consolidated Republican vote, has created a scenario where Democrats could be shut out entirely.
Recent polling from UC Berkely show a narrow spread among leading candidates, with no clear frontrunner and a significant share of voters still undecided with polling likely to shift.
The Candidates and Where They Stand in Aggregated Polling
Republicans
Steve Hilton — 17%
Steve Hilton enters the race as a political outsider compared to traditional California officeholders. Originally from the United Kingdom, he is best known in the U.S. as a political commentator and former advisor to British Prime Minister David Cameron.
Hilton has built a following through media appearances and his book and messaging around “positive populism,” which blends free-market ideas with critiques of government inefficiency. In California, he is positioning himself as a reform candidate focused on affordability, cost of living, and what he calls the failures of one-party Democratic rule.
Chad Bianco — 16%
Chad Bianco, the Riverside County Sheriff, represents a more traditional law-and-order Republican candidacy. He has gained statewide attention over the past several years for his outspoken positions on public safety, immigration enforcement, and opposition to certain state mandates.
A Republican sheriff in California who’s running for governor seized more than 650,000 ballots from election officials last week, saying he is investigating potential fraud in last year’s election. The move has faced criticism and raised eyebrows among election officials and political observers, with some questioning the scope and authority of such an action.
Bianco’s support is rooted strongly among conservative voters, particularly in inland regions like Riverside and San Bernardino counties.
Democrats (Top Tier)
Eric Swalwell — 14%
Eric Swalwell, a U.S. Congressman from the Bay Area, is one of the leading Democratic contenders and brings national political experience into the race. He previously ran for president in 2020, raising his national profile.
Swalwell is positioning himself as a pragmatic Democrat focused on economic concerns that resonate with everyday Californians. Unlike some progressive Democrats, Swalwell tends to frame his policies in more moderate, accessible terms, which could help him appeal to a broader statewide electorate.
Katie Porter — 13%
The former Orange County congresswoman remains competitive but has faced increased scrutiny following a widely circulated interview controversy.
During a televised interview with a CBS reporter, Porter grew visibly frustrated when pressed on how she would appeal to Republican voters. She challenged the line of questioning and at one point indicated she might end the interview, saying she would not continue under what she described as repeated follow-ups.
The exchange quickly went viral and drew criticism from both Democratic and Republican opponents, with some questioning her temperament under pressure.
Porter later acknowledged the moment publicly, saying, “what I did was not good,” while also defending her overall approach as a fighter for Californians.
Tom Steyer — 10%
The billionaire businessman continues to poll in the low double digits, emphasizing economic reform and housing affordability.
Democrats (Lower Tier / Single Digits)
Xavier Becerra
Former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary and California Attorney General.
Antonio Villaraigosa
Former Los Angeles mayor with strong name recognition but currently limited support in polling.
Matt Mahan
San Jose mayor positioning himself as a moderate candidate focused on practical solutions.
Betty Yee
Former state controller emphasizing fiscal responsibility and accountability.
Tony Thurmond
State Superintendent of Public Instruction focusing on education policy.
A large share of voters — roughly 26% — remain undecided or split among minor candidates, further adding uncertainty to the race.
Why Democrats Are Worried
Democrats are not worried about how many voters they have, but about how those votes are being split. With many Democrats in the race, their support is spread out among several candidates, making it harder for any one person to stand out. At the same time, the race is very close, with several candidates, including two Republicans, separated by only a few percentage points. Republican voters also appear more united, mostly supporting just two main candidates. Experts say that if Democrats continue to divide their votes, two Republicans could finish in first and second place, which would keep Democrats out of the final election.
A Volatile and Unusual Race
Even though California usually votes Democratic, this race could turn out differently.
Right now, no Democrat is clearly in the lead. At the same time, Republicans are more united and have less candidates to choose from.
Because of this, the race is still changing and hard to predict.
One thing is clear: under California’s election system, surprising results can happen — even in a state where Democrats usually win.