Palm Springs, CA

The sudden collapse of Eric Swalwell’s gubernatorial campaign has sent shockwaves through California’s Democratic Party, leaving a once-clear primary field fractured and uncertain just weeks before voters head to the polls.

Swalwell, who had been the top-polling Democrat for much of the race, suspended his campaign and announced plans to resign from Congress following multiple allegations of sexual misconduct, which he has denied.

From Frontrunner to Fallout

Before his withdrawal, polling showed Swalwell leading a crowded field. A March survey had him at 17% support, ahead of both Democratic and Republican rivals, though a large share of voters remained undecided.

His abrupt exit has now upended that dynamic.

According to multiple reports, the Democratic field is left without a dominant candidate, creating what insiders describe as a “wide-open” and volatile race.

Who Is Leading Now?

With Swalwell gone, several Democrats are emerging as de facto frontrunners, though none have consolidated clear support:

• Katie Porter
• Tom Steyer
• Antonio Villaraigosa
• Xavier Becerra

Among these, Steyer and Porter are currently seen as the strongest contenders to absorb Swalwell’s former base of support, with Steyer already picking up backing from some of Swalwell’s allies.

Pictured: Katie Porter

Pictured: Tom Steyer

However, analysts note that no candidate has broken away from the pack, and the race remains highly fragmented.

Risk of a Split Democratic Vote

California’s “top-two” primary system adds urgency to the chaos. The system sends the two highest vote-getters, regardless of party, to the general election.

With Democrats divided, there is growing concern that two Republicans could advance, effectively locking Democrats out of the general election altogether.

On the Republican side, figures like:

• Steve Hilton
• Chad Bianco

are consolidating support, potentially benefiting from Democratic disarray.

A Race Without a Clear Leader

What was once a campaign anchored by a single Democratic frontrunner is now a free-for-all. More than 50 candidates remain on the ballot, and a large portion of voters are still undecided.

For Democrats, the challenge is now clear:
quickly unify behind a viable candidate or risk losing control of the narrative—and possibly the general election.

As the June primary approaches, the question is no longer who will beat Swalwell.
It is whether any Democrat can emerge from the chaos at all.

Also Read