Palm Springs, CA

California’s 2026 gubernatorial race is entering a new phase as recent polling shows a highly competitive and unpredictable contest to replace termed-out Gov. Gavin Newsom.

With the June 2 primary approaching and mail ballots now arriving in voters’ homes, several new statewide surveys suggest the race remains fluid, with no dominant frontrunner emerging in California’s unique “top-two” primary system.

Recent polling released by the California Democratic Party’s VOTER Index tracking survey shows former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra tied with Republican former Fox News host Steve Hilton at 18% support statewide. The same poll found undecided voters shrinking from 24% in March to 14%, signaling voters are beginning to lock in their choices.

Another recent Emerson College Polling survey showed Hilton leading at 17%, followed by Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and billionaire environmental activist Tom Steyer tied at 14%. Becerra and former Orange County congresswoman Katie Porter each polled at 10%, while 23% of voters remained undecided at the time of that survey.

Political analysts say the crowded Democratic field is creating a realistic possibility that two Republicans could advance to the November general election, despite California’s strong Democratic voter registration advantage. Under California’s open primary system, the top two vote-getters advance regardless of party affiliation.

That concern has reportedly sparked internal discussions among Democratic leaders about whether the current primary system is unintentionally benefiting Republicans in races with multiple Democratic contenders splitting the vote.

The race also shifted significantly after Congressman Eric Swalwell exited the contest earlier this spring. Several polls since then show Becerra gaining momentum, with some analysts suggesting he absorbed a sizable share of Swalwell’s former support base.

Key issues dominating the campaign include California’s high cost of living, housing affordability, gas prices, homelessness, insurance costs, and public safety. According to a recent CBS News poll, many voters say the “California Dream” feels increasingly out of reach financially.

The candidates clashed sharply during a recent statewide televised debate, where Republicans criticized years of Democratic leadership while Democratic contenders debated healthcare policy, taxation, and housing affordability.

Among the most watched Republican candidates are Hilton and Bianco, both campaigning heavily on affordability and crime issues. Hilton has proposed reducing taxes and environmental regulations, while Bianco has called for major changes to California’s sanctuary state laws and environmental policies.

Meanwhile, Democrats including Becerra, Porter, and Steyer are positioning themselves as candidates capable of protecting California from policies associated with President Donald Trump while also addressing voter frustration over rising living costs.

The race is widely viewed as one of the most important governor’s contests in the country, given California’s economic size and political influence nationwide.